the AMP Issue 67

"All music is folk music. I ain’t never heard a horse sing a song."
― Louis Armstrong

In This Issue... 14 pages [about 21ish minutes to read] You'll Get... 

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• RECOMMENDS— Ted Gioia and The Honest Broker. An Essential Read for Singer Songwriters

• the BIZ— Why Streaming Subscription Prices Will Continue to Rise by Ted Gioia

• the GREATEST SINGER SONGWRITERS of ALL TIME— (Maybe) Shaun Mendes

• ON SONGWRITING— Lessons from 100 Pro Songwriters: What Every Singer Songwriter Needs to Know from SongTown

• PS from PS— the End Is Just the Beginning

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Here’s the playlist

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• Recommends— Ted Gioia and The Honest Broker. 

Discover Ted Gioia and The Honest Broker— An Essential Read for Singer-Songwriters

Ted Gioia is a renowned music historian, author, and jazz pianist with a career spanning over three decades. With a background that includes an education from Stanford and Oxford, Ted’s expertise is rooted in a profound understanding of both the history and the intricacies of music across genres. He's penned critically acclaimed books such as The History of Jazz and Music: A Subversive History, and he brings this wealth of knowledge to The Honest Broker, his acclaimed newsletter. Gioia’s writing is celebrated for its depth, insight, and authenticity— qualities that make him one of the most respected voices in music criticism today.

For Singer Songwriters, The Honest Broker is an invaluable resource. Ted’s ability to connect the dots between music history, cultural movements, and the artist’s journey is unparalleled, providing readers with a perspective that’s both educational and inspirational. In each issue, he dives into the art and industry of music, offering insights that encourage musicians to think beyond the usual boundaries. Whether he's exploring the impact of digital platforms, revealing little-known stories of legendary musicians, or discussing what makes music resonate, Ted does so with a passion for the truth and a dedication to artistry.

If you’re serious about your craft, Gioia’s The Honest Broker is more than just a newsletter— it’s an invitation to see music in a richer, broader context. With every article, you’ll gain new perspectives, deeper appreciation, and actionable insights that can inform your creative journey. This is why Ted Gioia’s voice is one worth listening to and why The Honest Broker deserves a place on every singer-songwriter's reading list.

Tap the link to check out The Honest Broker.

And check out • the BIZ— Why Streaming Subscription Prices Will Continue to Rise by Ted Gioia in this issue of the AMP. (Scroll right below.)

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• the BIZ— Why Streaming Subscription Prices Will Continue to Rise by Ted Gioia

I got a request to explain why streaming subscription prices are so damned high— and getting higher.

This came in response to a chart I shared about the Disney+ Premium Subscription Price Trend rising from $60 a year in 2019 to $160 in 2024.

And it's not just Disney.

All the streaming platforms are jacking up prices. I still subscribe to five different streaming services— down from six previously. Every one of them raised prices this year, and always by more than the inflation rate.

Here's what Spotify is doing:

What's going on? And will it continue?

I recently described this as an "endgame strategy"— but that might be confusing to readers.

Endgame is a term drawn from chess, where it refers to a body of wisdom about the final moves on the board. But business is like chess, so I frequently analyzed endgame situations back in my days at the Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey.

I now see these endgame strategies getting implemented in various media, entertainment, and streaming businesses. But almost nobody inside those businesses wants to talk about it.

So let me lay it out for you.

The Entertainment Industry Is Adopting an Endgame Mindset
You pursue an "endgame" strategy when demand for your business hits a wall, and it's hard to attract new customers. The most typical endgame strategy is to cut back investment into new products and services, while raising prices sharply.

You're willing to accept some loss of customers, because you're now squeezing more profit-per-user out of your remaining consumers— who stick with you out of loyalty or habit or inertia.

These are your sheep, ready to be shorn.

Profit per customer is now the key metric driving your business. It's more important than innovation or growth or artistry or any of those old fashioned ideas.

That's why, for example, Netflix won't share data on the number of subscribers anymore. They claim this is no longer relevant to their business model— and they aren't lying.

Price increases are now the engine of their business.

It seems like a paradox— how can price rise while value falls? But this is exactly how the endgame strategy is played.

That's precisely how you grow profits when you can no longer grow your user base. 

This is how execs get rich in a stagnant business. They can still make buckets of money while their customer base shrinks.

This is already happening in the newspaper business, private colleges, some healthcare sectors, and other stagnant industries. Private equity firms are experts at implementing this strategy— so be prepared when they arrive at your workplace.

This is now starting to happen in entertainment and media. All the major players are cutting back investment in new stuff.

• The number of new scripted TV series fell by 23% last year, and will be ugly this year too.

• Record labels now keep pushing old songs instead of developing new artists— and put most of their investment dollars into the rights to tunes from the distant past.

• Film studios "are releasing a smaller number of titles for a shrinking revenue pie"— in fact, everything related to traditional film making is getting smaller and smaller.

• Newspapers were the first to do this in publishing— shrinking page count while raising prices. But the rest of the legacy publishing business is now embracing the same endgame strategy.

This is the new normal. You will pay more for less.

And there's not much you can do about it— except walk away from these platforms. 

They expect a few of you will do just that, but more will stay. These remaining loyalists will get punished for their loyalty.

That's the new streaming business model in a nutshell.

But don't expect Disney, Netflix, Spotify, or anyone else to announce it in a press release. Watch what they do, not what they say.

Here's a tiny glimmer of good news. 

As legacy businesses enter this endgame phase, opportunities emerge for indie operators and freelancers. Creativity won't disappear— it will just change its location.

If you work in entertainment or media, you can still thrive. Endgame for some will be the beginning for many others.

in partnership with with SongTown On Songwriting

• the Greatest Singer Songwriters of All Time— (Maybe) Shaun Mendes

Shawn Mendes: A Rising Star with an Inevitable Legacy

"Shawn Mendes is an artist who writes with heart and sings with soul. His journey may be young, but his impact on music and fans is already undeniable."

It may seem early to position Shawn Mendes among the greatest Singer Songwriters of all time, but there's an unmistakable trajectory in his career that points toward lasting greatness. Born in Canada and rising to stardom as a teenager, Mendes has transcended his early social media fame to become a globally recognized pop artist with a devoted following. His remarkable success isn't solely about chart-topping hits and sold-out tours; it's about the depth of his connection with fans, his artistic evolution, and his openness about the personal challenges he's faced along the way.

"Shawn is a songwriter in the truest sense. He writes music that speaks to people, and that's a rare gift in today's music."
— John Mayer

A Meteoric Rise and Record-Breaking Success
From his first hit single, Stitches, Mendes showed he was more than just an internet phenomenon. The track rocketed up the charts, and it wasn't long before follow-up hits like Treat You Better, There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back, and In My Blood solidified his position in pop music. Mendes' early albums— Handwritten (2015), Illuminate (2016), and Shawn Mendes (2018)— each marked new milestones, not just in sales and streaming numbers but in artistic growth, with his style evolving from catchy pop to a more nuanced, guitar-driven sound. His fourth album, Wonder (2020), earned him critical acclaim, revealing layers of introspection and vulnerability that connected deeply with audiences.

Artistic Collaboration and Evolving Sound
Collaboration has been a cornerstone of Mendes' career, with partnerships that have broadened his musical reach. His duet with Camila Cabello on Señorita became a global phenomenon, showcasing a more sensual and layered side to his artistry. This track, among others, demonstrated Mendes' versatility and ability to explore different musical dimensions, with each collaboration reflecting his openness to growth. Beyond his solo work, he's also collaborated with talented producers and Songwriters, each project enhancing his sound and extending his influence across genres.

"Working with Shawn has shown me just how dedicated he is to his craft and to making music that means something. He pours himself into every note, every lyric."
— Camila Cabello

A Pause for Mental Health: Courage to Step Away
In 2022, as his fame continued to soar, Mendes made a surprising decision to step away from the spotlight, canceling his world tour to focus on his mental health. He spoke candidly about his struggles with anxiety and the pressure of life on the road, choosing self-care over the demands of fame. As he explained in a recent New York Times interview, "Healing takes time, more than you want. And it's beautiful because you can be healing and expressing at the same time." This decision highlighted Mendes' maturity and integrity, with fans rallying in support of his commitment to personal well-being.

This hiatus allowed Mendes to regroup and reconnect with his artistry, leading to his upcoming fifth album, Shawn. Slated for release on November 15, the album takes a stripped-down approach, with rootsy guitar and strings accompanying raw lyrics that lay bare his inner struggles. On the opening track, Mendes confesses, "I don't understand who I am right now," a vulnerable admission that underscores the depth of his journey.

TrueFan Visionary: Building a Community of Connection

"Shawn's commitment to his fans is inspiring. He's not just in it for the fame; he's in it for the connection, and it shows in everything he does."
— Taylor Swift

From the very beginning, Mendes has placed tremendous value on building authentic connections with his audience. While many artists talk about fan engagement, Mendes lives it, often blending seamlessly into his community. Whether it's a coffee shop chat or a casual meet-and-greet, Mendes' interactions with fans are genuine and warm. "I don't feel a great kind of difference between myself and them," he told The New York Times, a statement that captures his ethos as an artist who sees his fans not as an audience but as an extended family. This approach has fostered an unbreakable bond with his supporters—his TrueFans— who see in Mendes not just a musician but a friend and ally.

"Shawn Mendes is a fearless artist. The way he's opened up about his struggles makes him relatable and real. He's changing what it means to be a pop star."
— Billie Eilish

Inspiration, Influence, and the Path Forward
While his journey has had its share of struggles, Mendes has turned each challenge into a source of inspiration. His commitment to mental health and openness about his personal experiences have made him a role model, particularly for younger fans facing similar issues. Mendes' influence extends beyond music; he's shaping a generation's understanding of vulnerability, self-care, and resilience, setting a powerful example for aspiring Singer Songwriters who see him as proof that authenticity is an asset, not a liability.

"Shawn Mendes is one of those artists who is truly authentic. His songs come from the heart, and he's as genuine off-stage as he is on."
— Ed Sheeran

Although he's just beginning his adult career, Mendes' impact on the music industry is undeniable. His ability to stay true to himself while navigating fame, his genuine engagement with fans, and his willingness to confront his own struggles head-on all point to a legacy that is bound to endure. Mendes has demonstrated that greatness is not just about hits and accolades but about the heart and integrity an artist brings to their work. For Shawn Mendes, the future is filled with promise, and his journey is one that both fans and fellow artists will continue to watch with admiration.

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ON SONGWRITING— Lessons from 100 Pro Songwriters: What Every Singer-Songwriter Needs to Know from SongTown

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The following is a condensed transcript from Clay Mills and Marty Dodson SongTown  YouTube video highlighting the essential points that Singer Songwriters need to know most. Tap this link to view the video on YouTube: Lessons from 100 Pro Songwriters.
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In interviews with over 100 successful Songwriters, certain truths kept coming up. Here are the essential insights every aspiring Singer Songwriter should keep in mind:

1. Write a Lot (and Write Often)
The path to great songs is paved with a lot of not-so-great ones. Pro Songwriters unanimously agree: you have to write a lot to get to your best work. For instance, Clay Mills recalls a time when he shared his early songs with a seasoned songwriter, only to be told to "come back after you've written a couple hundred more." This might sound disheartening, but the key is consistency and volume.

Ed Sheeran explains it like turning on a dirty faucet: at first, you'll get a lot of "brown water" (the less inspired ideas). But as you keep writing, eventually, the "clear water" flows. Writing often helps keep your creative channel open so that when inspiration strikes, it has room to flow. Even Hall of Fame Songwriters, with cuts by legends like Garth Brooks, acknowledge they still write duds. They believe you need to get those "bad ones" out of your system to reach the gems.

Key takeaway: Aim to write regularly. Your first few songs might excite you, but keep going to raise your standards and develop consistency.

2. Study What's Worked— Past and Present  
Understanding the history of your genre is as crucial as staying current. Clay Mills tells of a young songwriter in Nashville who admitted he didn't know many "older" country artists— only to list Billy Currington, a current star! Mills emphasized the value of knowing classic artists like Merle Haggard or George Jones. When Clay co-wrote the hit Must Be Doing Something Right with Jason Matthews, they intentionally blended a classic Conway Twitty-esque groove with modern R&B influences. This knowledge of past hits gave the song a timeless quality with a fresh twist.

Many of today's biggest hits in pop and country draw from the '80s and '90s, and being familiar with those eras can help you write songs that resonate across generations. If you only listen to today's artists, you're pulling from a shallow pool— having a broad musical knowledge gives you a richer toolbox to create original work.

Key takeaway: Dive deep into your genre's roots. Whether it's pop, country, or rock, know its history and how it influences current trends. 

3. Don't Rest on Past Successes
Every professional Songwriter, no matter their accolades, knows that each day is a fresh opportunity to prove themselves. Even with walls of gold records, the best Songwriters don't take their craft for granted. Mills shares a story of a time he celebrated a major success with his publisher, who immediately asked, "What do you have next?" Initially, he felt irritated by the question, but later realized its value: he'd written that hit a year ago. If he hadn't worked on anything since, his relevance would be at risk. 

For Songwriters, resting on one success isn't an option. Keep "a lot of irons in the fire," Mills advises, so that a single missed opportunity or setback doesn't derail you. If you have multiple songs in the works or several potential projects, one disappointment won't crush your motivation.

Key takeaway: Celebrate your wins but keep writing. Each day, show up to create new material that keeps your artistry evolving.

4. Stay Open to Pivotal Moments
In the unpredictable world of Songwriting, life-changing opportunities can appear out of nowhere. Both Mills and Dodson share stories about times they were on the verge of giving up when a career-defining moment suddenly emerged. Dodson recalls a conversation with singer Billy Currington— both were worried about their futures. Dodson hadn't had a recent hit and thought he might lose his writing deal, while Currington feared he'd lose his record contract. Not long after, Dodson co-wrote Must Be Doing Something Right, which went on to become a number-one hit for Currington, and both men's careers took off.

Another powerful example comes from songwriter Reggie Hamm, who, frustrated with his career, nearly joined the military. Just as he was walking out the door, he got a call inviting him to fill in on a session with two other writers— one of whom had just canceled. That session produced his first cut, and he stayed in the music industry, going on to write hit songs for Christian and country artists.

Key takeaway: Stay the course, even when discouraged. Often, success comes when you're ready to quit, so keep showing up. As songwriter Kim Williams says, "Keep your butt in the chair"— you never know when the big break will come.

5. Persistence is Key: Show Up Consistently 
Ultimately, the most consistent advice from pro Songwriters is simple: show up. Don't let fear of failure or a bad day keep you from writing. Marty Dodson tells of a Songwriter who lost out on a number-one song simply because he didn't want to risk getting a ticket driving with expired car tags to a co-writing session. Dodson's takeaway? You miss every chance you don't take.

Key takeaway: Believe in your craft, show up every day, and seize every opportunity. Being present consistently is what opens the door to breakthroughs.

These lessons underscore that Songwriting is a long and winding road of resilience, learning, and endless creativity. For any Singer Songwriter, these essential points can guide the path to a lasting, fulfilling career in music.

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To learn more about Clay Mills and Marty Dodson and SongTown, scroll up to read the in partnership with...in the gold box.

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PS from PS— the End Is the Just Beginning

As I reflect on the threads weaving through this issue, I'm struck by what feels like a pivotal moment in music's evolution. Ted Gioia's analysis of the streaming industry's "endgame strategy" initially reads like a warning: 

Major platforms squeezing more dollars from fewer services while investment in new artists dwindles. 

Yet beneath this seemingly grim forecast, Gioia points to something exciting— a new frontier where independent creators and authentic voices might actually thrive in the gaps left by retreating corporate giants.

This industry shift makes our profile of Shawn Mendes feel particularly timely. Here's an artist who, despite (or perhaps because of) achieving massive success within the traditional star-making system, chose to step away from a world tour to prioritize his mental health. In an era where platforms demand constant content and algorithms reward relentless output, Mendes's decision to pause feels almost revolutionary. It challenges us to consider what sustainable artistry really looks like in 2024 and beyond.

Which brings me to those invaluable insights from SongTown's interviews with 100 professional songwriters. Their emphasis on fundamentals— writing prolifically, studying deeply, staying humble, and remaining open to opportunity— takes on new resonance in this moment. As Ed Sheeran said, sometimes you need to write through the "brown water" to get to the clear stuff. And isn't that a perfect metaphor for where we are? 

While the major platforms might be entering their endgame, authentic creators are just beginning their next chapter.

I'm loving Louis Armstrong's quote that opens this issue: "All music is folk music. I ain't never heard a horse sing a song." At its core, music has always been about people connecting with people. As our industry undergoes these tectonic shifts, perhaps that's what we need to remember most. Whether you're writing for streaming platforms or intimate live shows, for major labels or your local community, the fundamental task remains the same: show up, dig deep, and create something true.

The landscape may be changing, but the path forward still belongs to those willing to put in the work, stay authentic, and keep their ears open for opportunity's knock— even if it comes wearing unexpected clothes.

Keep creating, keep growing, and remember: sometimes the most powerful thing we can do is pause, reflect, and then continue with renewed purpose.

Until we speak again...

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